Thanks for visiting this blog, created in July 2012 out of great concern for the fate of the €uro currency area, once again on the verge of collapse due to the economically ill-advised and heartless austerity policies imposed on Greece, Spain and other heavily-indebted €uro area countries by a christian democratic German chancellor impressed with the budgeting skills of Schwabian housewives. Meant to reduce the public debt and put the countries back on a path to economic growth, these macro-economically idiotic policies are doing anything but cause "pointless misery" as Paul Krugman so aptly describes it (Bloomberg, July 23-29, 2012).

Instead of reducing public debt, the austerity measures set in motion a vicious cycle of economic contraction, rising unemployment and poverty, lower tax revenues, private capital flight, and rising public debt shares as the economy declines faster than the public debt. What’s more, the austerity-driven ‘blood, sweat and tears’ policies recommended to the European periphery derive from the same economic doctrine that brought us to the brink of disaster in 2008. These policies are not only misanthropic and counterproductive to economic growth and debt reduction in Europe, but will prove explosive for the €uro currency area unless a drastic change of course takes place - and soon.

While I do not pretend to have ‘the’ solution for the €uro crisis, I would like to offer alternative economic perspectives and views on current events, and hope to chart a more humane path toward a balanced, socially fair, and sustainable economic future for the €uro area.

On the origins of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis:
90+% of traders are men, and they bet all of our bank deposits on liar loans which froze credit leading to 40% average losses passed on to ordinary taxpayers; then begged for trillion-dollar bailouts upon which they paid themselves 50% higher boni.”


Sunday, August 12, 2012

How to raise public revenues, reduce public debt, and stimulate job-creating growth


In economics and economic policy, as in any other social science, it's always more effective to draw lessons from real-life history rather than follow an abstract theory that is impossible to verify or replicate in real life.

Fortunately, recent history (1990s) provides an excellent example of how to successfully raise public revenues, reduce public debt and stimulate job-creating growth: An effective combination of several coordinated policy measures generated sufficient revenues to pay down public debt, finance a well-designed economic stimulus, and lay the ground for the longest period of economic growth and record job creation in US history.

The initial economic situation was similar to the predicament of the Southern European periphery today:

- high levels of public debt
- rising interest payments on the debt
- rising budget deficits as a consequence of a banking crisis
- rising unemployment

The policy measures that helped reduce the public debt and laid the groundwork for strong job creation and long-term economic growth:

  • To quickly raise much needed public revenues and reduce public debt, the Clinton administration (1993-2001) implemented drastic tax increases on corporations and the rich (people with incomes over $180.000). The super-rich (people with incomes over $250.000) had to pay an additional 10% surcharge. 
  • To relieve the tax burden on lower income people and to promote consumption, the tax rate for lower income groups was lowered. For those who had so little income that they did not pay taxes at all, the Clinton administration introduced the negative income tax, i.e. they would get money from the US Treasury after filing their tax return. 
  • To further reduce the debt, there were also expenditure cuts, but these were focused on corporate welfare (i.e. unproductive subsidies) or line items that provided little economic benefit. 
  • To create approx. 500.000 jobs, the Clinton administration implemented an economic stimulus package including tax rebates for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), i.e. enterprises that create the majority of new jobs; 'empowerment zones' and community banks to finance investments in run-down regions; financing of investments in public infrastructure projects well as for the repair of environmental damages. 
  • To ensure long-term growth, the Clinton administration drastically raised expenditures for education and investments in 'new technologies/sectors with future growth potential, i.e. the information technology 'highway' and others. 
These policies were so successful that, at the end of the Clinton administration, the United States government had a budget surplus so large that the Federal Reserve began to worry about zero interest rates on US Treasury bonds. As mentioned above, they also generated a record number of jobs (in the millions) and produced the longest period of economic growth in US history, not to speak of a booming stock market.



Whether this or a similar combination of policies will be as successful in Southern Europe as they were in the United States no doubt depends on a variety of individual country factors. But I think it's worth a try !
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Further details of the policies described above may be drawn from Bill Clinton's autobiography, "My Life". To verify the claims made in this post regarding the success of the policies described above, you are welcome to check the statistics for the United States in the 1990s.

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